No Way!

Sorry I have to do this.....

Made me think of this.

TD Two

Could this be our next named Atlantic storm for the season? Probably not.

The environment is marginal, at best, for development during the
next couple of days, as the depression will be moving over marginal
SSTs and into a region characterized by dry air and subsidence as it
approaches the Caribbean Sea. Most of the global model guidance and
the HWRF shows the system weakening and dissipating by 48 to 72

It is something to keep an eye on (pun intended). Forecasters (computers) have been wrong in the past. This system is well east of the Antilles and expects to swing slightly northward throughout the period.

Stay tuned.

Goodbye Arthur, now what?

UPDATE: They removed the system I referred to in this article from the watch list. No developments now in the next 48 hours.

So Arthur made it's way up the east coast and caused the most impact to the outer banks of North Carolina. Interestingly enough Arthur is the earliest storm to hit North Carolina since records began in 1851. It is also the first hurricane to hit the US mainland since Issac in late August of 2012. I tell you.. they are coming for me.  :)

A summary of the storm from Newport/Morehead, NC NWS forecast office.

Arthur developed from a non-tropical area of low pressure over the southeastern United States that emerged into the western Atlantic Ocean on June 28. After sufficiently organizing, developing a well-defined circulation amid a favorable environment, it was classified a tropical depression on July 1. The system continued to strengthen, and was declared a tropical storm later that afternoon. Drifting northward, the storm reached hurricane status early on July 3 and recurved toward the north-northeast in response to a cold front to the north. The storm intensified further, and by late on the evening of July 3,  the system attained its peak winds of 100 mph as a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale. Arthur made landfall at 11:15 pm July 3, over Shackleford Banks, between Cape Lookout and Beaufort, and intensified slightly further, with a minimum pressure of 973 mB or 28.73 inches/mercury. The storm then accelerated northward, weakening as it passed by Cape Cod and Nantucket before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone on July 5.  Widespread power outages were reported throughout coastal eastern North Carolina. Surge flooding up to 4 to 5 feet above normal was observed over the central and northern Outer Banks with portions of NC Highway 12 and U.S. Highway 64 closed in Dare County. The peak wind gust during the storm was 101 mph at Cape Lookout. 

Check out this cool wind graph of the storm passing over Cape Lookout.

 It's obvious the eye of the storm passed over this location as winds increased towards the eye wall and then dropped out once the eye was overhead. This is possibly where the statement "calm before the storm" comes from because as they eye wall came back through, the wind speeds quickly jumped from 20 MPH to close to 90 MPH and from the opposite direction. So much power in one of these storms. It sounds like there was minimal casualties and damage was not too bad although there are some images of flooding as expected from the system.

OBX Flooding courtesy of ABC News
Considering this storm began and made US landfall early, I have high hopes for an active Atlantic hurricane season. The NHC's originally forecasted:
  • 8-13 Named Storms
  • 3-6 Hurricanes
  • 1-2 Major Hurricanes
We will see how this season pans out. I do know that the 2013 hurricane forecast was well behind the forecast as there were only 2 hurricanes of which none were major for the Atlantic. This was behind their prediction of 6-9 hurricanes and 3-5 major storms. Maybe they will have under estimated this year.

Now don't get me wrong.. I don't want people to think I am sick in the head for wanting these systems, but if you live in these areas, you have to accept the risk of these things. People have adapted and it is a way of life. If I can experience a hurricane first hand once in my life, I will be able to appreciate the power of nature and can only respect it. I don't wish catastrophe on anyone and hope that everyone remains safe this season.

So now the question... what's next?

The NHC has decided to raise awareness for this disorganized area of storms off the Florida coast. Dejavu? It looks like upper shear in the area will prevent this system from being organized, but they are stamping it with a 10% probability of developing into a storm as it slips to the NE. 

I will provide updates as there are any.

Stay safe out there!