Fall

So I intended to get a good amount of sleep last night... went to bed at a normal hour and had an 8 hour window for uninterrupted sleep. I get about 5 hours of sleep a night, which keeps me fairly refreshed and ready to take on the world but last night I was going to charge up.

Went to bed at 7PM... woke up at midnight.. and here I am... awake.

Well since I got a full night sleep, let's talk about the weather.

It's been chilly in the mornings and nice during the day out east. I wonder what the rest of the country is experiencing.


Although mornings are cool for much of the nation, the Southwest is still baking in the hot afternoon sun, and much of the country's midsection is still a bit warm for my taste. Systems impacting the mid Atlantic states and the Pacific Northwest are keeping temperatures at bay there.

The NWS's climate prediction center is expecting above average temperatures for much of the country with above average precipitation for the southern third of the nation. This is typical with an active El Nino pattern which has a 65% chance of continuing development through fall.

If the winter out here in the east was anything like what I had experienced when I moved out here prior to the family, I think they will be in for a shock. It will be fun to find a nice rolling hill and do some sledding with the kids. We never really experienced major amounts of snow in the AZ high country, so this will be a welcome change for us.



Major weather for the coming days, it looks like the West will be experiencing a couple back to back systems which should being some much needed rain to California and the desert southwest on the first system (depicted below) with one following from the northwest pulling into the Rockies.

The tropics are quiet with the exception of Tropical Storm Rachel pushing up the baja peninsula. Looks like it won't make hurricane status and dissipate fairly quickly due to associated shear with the deepening low I have depicted to the left.

Stay warm out there and welcome to fall!

M

Baja and Arizona

Hurricane Odile has a nice eye and is heading right for the Baja peninsula.


I'm sure the resort town of Cabo San Lucas has already boarded up and hunkering down. Odele is a major hurricane with wind speeds around 125 mph.

Considering this storm is positioned like Norbert, one wonders where this storm is headed?


I would expect some good moisture from this system to slam into AZ again.

M

Personal Weatherman

In all my time writing blog posts have I never had two requests for weather information on the same day. Usually it occurs as random spread out events, but never on the same day. So welcome to my blog post to personally respond to each of the requests. We will do them in order to squash any potential conflicts.

Request Alpha

My first requests comes from a friend in the state of Maryland via FB IM.













It looks like there is a surface low centered over Michigan with a cold front stretching south and west over much of the country.































Here is a current radar image.





























This is an obvious concern for someone east of this area. The image directly above is a national radar composite of real time radar. The NCEP NAM 4KM set of models actually have a simulated radar product that will show what the models expect the radar composite to look like in the short term. Below is a loop of the next 36 hours. I've slowed it down when the precip starts hitting the DC area.



Depending where you are in MD, it looks like the precip will start hitting early evening and push out by late evening. You should be able to tell from the above graphic.

Hope that helps!

Request Bravo

So my next request comes in the form of a FB wall post.










Now this one is much more difficult. Normally forecasts aren't very accurate that far out. This friend already understands the need to look at things at a larger scale to determine what the trend may be for his Oct 11th date. Let's see what we can dig up here.

Starting with the precipitation forecast for October. This is the easiest thing to look at, you can find it here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/


This is the precipitation outlook for the September through November. It appears that the southwest through the plains are expecting higher than normal precipitation. Palm springs is within this area.

Why is this?

Models are predicting the upswing in indices suggesting that the El Nino pattern will continue to develop into the winter. During a normal El Nino,  statistically northwestern Mexico and the Southwest have seen above normal precipitation. It basically enhances the North American monsoon, such like we have seen in recent days. Due to easterly flow this increase in moisture pulling up from Mexico spreads east which accurately describes the graphic above.


It is also worth mentioning that an El Nino event usually allows low pressure to take harbor in the pacific allowing for a persistent jet stream to take a more southerly jaunt across the US. This makes things wet for the south. This also agrees with the precipitation probability chart above.

I would bring your tent. Although you are on the western edge of the normal monsoon, the increased chance for a storm to hit SOCAL in general during El Nino would cause me to wear my nickers.

Thank you for the requests. That was fun. 

Keep them coming.

M