Baja and Arizona

Hurricane Odile has a nice eye and is heading right for the Baja peninsula.


I'm sure the resort town of Cabo San Lucas has already boarded up and hunkering down. Odele is a major hurricane with wind speeds around 125 mph.

Considering this storm is positioned like Norbert, one wonders where this storm is headed?


I would expect some good moisture from this system to slam into AZ again.

M

Personal Weatherman

In all my time writing blog posts have I never had two requests for weather information on the same day. Usually it occurs as random spread out events, but never on the same day. So welcome to my blog post to personally respond to each of the requests. We will do them in order to squash any potential conflicts.

Request Alpha

My first requests comes from a friend in the state of Maryland via FB IM.













It looks like there is a surface low centered over Michigan with a cold front stretching south and west over much of the country.































Here is a current radar image.





























This is an obvious concern for someone east of this area. The image directly above is a national radar composite of real time radar. The NCEP NAM 4KM set of models actually have a simulated radar product that will show what the models expect the radar composite to look like in the short term. Below is a loop of the next 36 hours. I've slowed it down when the precip starts hitting the DC area.



Depending where you are in MD, it looks like the precip will start hitting early evening and push out by late evening. You should be able to tell from the above graphic.

Hope that helps!

Request Bravo

So my next request comes in the form of a FB wall post.










Now this one is much more difficult. Normally forecasts aren't very accurate that far out. This friend already understands the need to look at things at a larger scale to determine what the trend may be for his Oct 11th date. Let's see what we can dig up here.

Starting with the precipitation forecast for October. This is the easiest thing to look at, you can find it here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/


This is the precipitation outlook for the September through November. It appears that the southwest through the plains are expecting higher than normal precipitation. Palm springs is within this area.

Why is this?

Models are predicting the upswing in indices suggesting that the El Nino pattern will continue to develop into the winter. During a normal El Nino,  statistically northwestern Mexico and the Southwest have seen above normal precipitation. It basically enhances the North American monsoon, such like we have seen in recent days. Due to easterly flow this increase in moisture pulling up from Mexico spreads east which accurately describes the graphic above.


It is also worth mentioning that an El Nino event usually allows low pressure to take harbor in the pacific allowing for a persistent jet stream to take a more southerly jaunt across the US. This makes things wet for the south. This also agrees with the precipitation probability chart above.

I would bring your tent. Although you are on the western edge of the normal monsoon, the increased chance for a storm to hit SOCAL in general during El Nino would cause me to wear my nickers.

Thank you for the requests. That was fun. 

Keep them coming.

M

Norbert

Another hurricane in the Pacific. It's been quite active over there. In fact, the current system Norbert looks like it will impact the desert southwest with heavy rain.


Models are in general agreement that this system will make it's way into Arizona as a tropical depression feeding the already moist North American monsoonal flow.


Those of you in Arizona keep an eye on this system.

Good evening!

M