Troptober

I took a look at the NSC website this morning and saw more activity in the Atlantic than I was expecting. I didn't post on TS Fay simply because I knew that system was not a threat to the mainland.

The is a system that is developing just east of the Antilles that appears to have some rotation and has potential to develop.


So then you ask, well it's October, isn't the Tropical Cyclone season about to end? Hardly.

Everyone remembers 2005 with the destruction that Katrina caused. This was the first year that NHC started naming storms using the Greek alphabet due to the sheer number of storms that existed even into November, They basically ran out of names.


As you can see a strong Category 5 storm existed late into October. Now I'm not saying we are anywhere close to that season in terms of numbers and conditions, but it points out that storms CAN develop deep into Fall.

We are in a developing El Nino which should increase the amount of rain the southern half of the country. Generally El Nino reduces the number and strength of storms in the Atlantic due to wind shear and general atmospheric stability.

If the above storm decides to get interesting, I will post it's progress.

Fall

So I intended to get a good amount of sleep last night... went to bed at a normal hour and had an 8 hour window for uninterrupted sleep. I get about 5 hours of sleep a night, which keeps me fairly refreshed and ready to take on the world but last night I was going to charge up.

Went to bed at 7PM... woke up at midnight.. and here I am... awake.

Well since I got a full night sleep, let's talk about the weather.

It's been chilly in the mornings and nice during the day out east. I wonder what the rest of the country is experiencing.


Although mornings are cool for much of the nation, the Southwest is still baking in the hot afternoon sun, and much of the country's midsection is still a bit warm for my taste. Systems impacting the mid Atlantic states and the Pacific Northwest are keeping temperatures at bay there.

The NWS's climate prediction center is expecting above average temperatures for much of the country with above average precipitation for the southern third of the nation. This is typical with an active El Nino pattern which has a 65% chance of continuing development through fall.

If the winter out here in the east was anything like what I had experienced when I moved out here prior to the family, I think they will be in for a shock. It will be fun to find a nice rolling hill and do some sledding with the kids. We never really experienced major amounts of snow in the AZ high country, so this will be a welcome change for us.



Major weather for the coming days, it looks like the West will be experiencing a couple back to back systems which should being some much needed rain to California and the desert southwest on the first system (depicted below) with one following from the northwest pulling into the Rockies.

The tropics are quiet with the exception of Tropical Storm Rachel pushing up the baja peninsula. Looks like it won't make hurricane status and dissipate fairly quickly due to associated shear with the deepening low I have depicted to the left.

Stay warm out there and welcome to fall!

M