Cold Pour

Since winter is on everyone's mind I thought I would loop the last 24 hours to show you the slow grip the icy north is having on the country. Even the sun can do little now to fight it back.


Bundle UP!

M

Polar Vortex?

What's with all the media attention lately about a polar vortex? Interestingly enough it seems to be something that has never existed since the last few years. This is far from true. The polar vortex is always there; a persistent, large cyclone filled with cold air that exists at the poles and occasionally dips into the lower 48. Canada laughs whenever we call it out, because they are usually under it for much of the winter.

With that said, yes, cold air will dip into the U.S. this coming week, and it will be just that, cold air associated with an air mass that will dip down from our cold neighbor and associated polar vortex.

Loop of 7AM EST temperatures through Sunday 11/16

The only thing that causes this cold polar air to become an anomaly is its timing and persistence over the lower 48. In this case, much of the eastern U.S. will have below normal temperatures.




Much of this pattern is caused by a strong storm in the Bering Sea that pumped up a ridge in the West. Whenever the west has a ridge, it allows for systems (and cold air) to come plunging into the eastern U.S.. A very typical pattern for the winter.

The Climate Prediction Center reduced the chance of El Niño to 58% although the three month precipitation outlook for the U.S. looks to be under the influence of a standard El Niño pattern.
















Time to bundle up. The family and I will be heading to WI for Thanksgiving, hopefully they get this cold out of the way before we get there.

Troptober

I took a look at the NSC website this morning and saw more activity in the Atlantic than I was expecting. I didn't post on TS Fay simply because I knew that system was not a threat to the mainland.

The is a system that is developing just east of the Antilles that appears to have some rotation and has potential to develop.


So then you ask, well it's October, isn't the Tropical Cyclone season about to end? Hardly.

Everyone remembers 2005 with the destruction that Katrina caused. This was the first year that NHC started naming storms using the Greek alphabet due to the sheer number of storms that existed even into November, They basically ran out of names.


As you can see a strong Category 5 storm existed late into October. Now I'm not saying we are anywhere close to that season in terms of numbers and conditions, but it points out that storms CAN develop deep into Fall.

We are in a developing El Nino which should increase the amount of rain the southern half of the country. Generally El Nino reduces the number and strength of storms in the Atlantic due to wind shear and general atmospheric stability.

If the above storm decides to get interesting, I will post it's progress.